Determining Doomsday:
Is the Doomsday clock a symbolic warning or a fearmongering tool?
By: Gabrielle Gunawan
Edited by: Fiorina Siamir
The Doomsday Clock, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, serves as a symbolic representation rather than a scientific instrument, depicting humanity’s perceived proximity to global catastrophe. Its hands symbolize the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change, with midnight signifying annihilation. It warns the public of how our inventions and technologies of our own making can lead to a man-made armageddon, serving as a call to action. The clock hands are set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a group formed by Manhattan Project scientists at the University of Chicago who helped build the atomic bomb but protested using it against people.
The aftermath of these events prompted the scientists who proposed the document, Leo Szilard and other Manhattan Project scientists, to establish the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in September. Szilard and his colleagues sought to enlighten the public about the implications of science for humanity. United by a joint mission, they aimed to provide essential information to the public, policymakers, and scientists to mitigate manufactured threats to our existence.
Initially, when the clock was first created in 1947, its hands were adjusted based solely on the perceived threat posed by nuclear weapons, a danger deemed paramount by Bulletin scientists. However, in 2007, the Bulletin incorporated the catastrophic disruptions resulting from climate change into its deliberations for hand-setting. The furthest the clock has ever been set from midnight was at 17 minutes, occurring in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Conversely, the closest it had ever been set was at two minutes to midnight, first in 1953 amid the simultaneous testing of thermonuclear weapons by the U.S. and Soviet Union, and again in 2018, attributed to a “breakdown in the international order” of nuclear actors and the ongoing negligence in addressing climate change. However, this quickly changed as humanity’s impending doom was set, yet again, to the closest it had ever been: 90 seconds to midnight.’ in 2023.
Some may argue that the Doomsday Clock has been subject to considerable politicization over the years, with its movements often correlating with shifts in political leadership. Notably, the clock tends to move closer to midnight following Republican administrations, such as under Eisenhower and Reagan, while it retreats during Democratic presidencies, like Kennedy and Johnson. This pattern has persisted, with the clock averaging shorter distances from midnight during Republican administrations than Democratic ones since its inception. However, the reasoning behind these adjustments has been questioned, particularly during the Reagan era when his anti-communist policies paradoxically led to safer conditions despite the clock’s dire readings.
The founding of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists can be traced back to 1945 when the Franck Report, a cautionary document which advocated for the demonstration of the atomic bomb in an uninhabited area as a means to prompt Japan’s surrender, rather than its direct use in warfare, failed to gain traction, leading to the tragic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Additionally, the addition of climate change as a factor in 2007 further muddied the waters, with the clock’s countdown attributed to a perceived lack of progress in reducing carbon emissions despite climate change’s speculative nature and distant timeline for potential catastrophic impact. Thus, some may conclude that the clock aligns with liberal anxieties rather than objective scientific analysis.
As a result, certain media outlets dismiss the Doomsday Clock as merely engaging in fear-mongering tactics. However, this aligns with the Bulletin’s mission to quote one of its founders, Eugene Rabinowitch, “to preserve civilization by scaring men into rationality.” Nevertheless, accusations that the Bulletin is more politically inclined than rationally overlook that the clock’s adjustments are grounded in data interpretation by a panel of 18 experts from diverse backgrounds, including policy, diplomacy, military history, and nuclear science. These experts convene biannually to deliberate on global events, policies, and trends, consulting extensively with colleagues across various disciplines and seeking input from the Bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, which boasts multiple Nobel laureates among its members.
In essence, the Doomsday Clock, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, is not merely a symbol of fear-mongering but a crucial warning system rooted in rigorous data interpretation by experts across diverse fields. Originating from noble intentions to promote rationality and safeguard civilization after the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the clock has evolved to encompass threats beyond nuclear war, including climate change. Despite political scrutiny, its message serves as a vital call to action, urging humanity to confront existential perils and strive for a more secure future. As a beacon of awareness, the Doomsday Clock demands collective action to address the challenges of our time and ensure a safer, more sustainable world for generations to come.